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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."